The Honest Estimate

›The Honest Estimate Estimates are lies we tell ourselves before we understand the problem. We've all done it — a client asks how long a project will take, and we confidently throw out a number based on nothing but optimism and a vague recollection of a similar project. ### Why We Get It Wrong The fundamental error in estimation is treating the unknown as if it were the known. When you've built a hundred landing pages, estimating the hundred-and-first feels easy. But the hundred-and-first has a different client, different requirements, different constraints, and different stakeholders. Every project is a new project. ### The Cone of Uncertainty In the early stages of a project, your estimate could be off by a factor of four. As you learn more, the estimate narrows. This is the cone of uncertainty — and it means that any estimate given before discovery is essentially a guess. The solution isn't better guessing. It's honest communication. ### A Better Approach Instead of a single number, give a range. Instead of a range, give a range with conditions. Instead of conditions, have a conversation. - Discovery first — understand the problem before estimating the solution - **Break it......